Born in 2025: Gen Beta Rising
Is history, and therefore the future, a riddle that might be solved with a rhyme?
Note: This post takes considerable liberties with the generational theory presented in the books, The Fourth Turning and The Fourth Turning is Here to conduct a thought experiment about the next upcoming generation, Gen Beta. The authors of the Fourth Turning do not account for generations Alpha or Beta in their published books. They use a unique measure of generations, which to date has not progressed past Gen Z (referred to in the Fourth Turning as “Homelanders” belonging to the Artist generational archetype–see figure 1). This article twists the Fourth Turning theory to fit the pop culture view of generations that considers Generations Alpha and Beta as two distinct demographic cohorts following Gen Z.
Introduction: The Fourth Turning
It is often said that to predict the future you must understand the past. This sentiment is encapsulated by the theory set forth by US historians William Strauss and Neil Howe in their influential 1997 book, The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny. In the 2023 sequel, The Fourth Turning is Here, their hypothesis goes global to explain the prevailing tempo of change in modern societies.
For seasoned futurists, the Fourth Turning is an enticing reprieve from the typical techno-centric theory of societal change. According to Strauss and Howe, technology is merely a footnote to history. Instead, recurring social patterns demarcate “seasons of history” in which highs and lows define, and are in turn defined by, the zeitgeist of every new generation. Their cyclical theory reasons that generational identity is the primary source of societal change and that it reverberates predictably over time.
According to the theory, generational turns cause jolts of cultural renewal every few decades as new generations emerge. The authors point to 500 years of historical evidence supporting a simple fact: young generations perennially shock the elders with a new, unique, often clashing, worldview. In foresight, consideration for future generations is a key underpinning of most approaches, one of many complementary features between the futurist viewpoint and the Fourth Turning.
As a thoughtful hypothesis within the parameters of foresight exploration, the Fourth Turning concept provides an attractive and logical epicenter for the portrayal of future generations. If the zeitgeist of a generation is predetermined and defines their impact on history, then we can use this pattern to better anticipate next generations’ needs and having in place the ideal educational, community, and family resources for their empowerment.
Figure 1: Hybrid Fourth Turning/Pop Culture Generational Archetypes and Birth Years
Sources: The Fourth Turning and and McCrindle
Gen Beta would be classified as the Nomad generational archetype according to this proposed mash-up of Fourth Turning and popular definitions of today’s current generations. Nomads are born during societal awakening and come of age during a time that society is unraveling. As mature adults, they step into leadership roles in the aftermath of the unraveling–a time of crisis. The Nomad is therefore pragmatic, adaptable, and survival-oriented. The last generation to fit this archetype was Gen X, the kids of the 1970s-80s.
As a Gen X futurist, it’s impossible to resist the storytelling opportunity to describe our future Fourth Turning doppelgangers. According to the theory, Generation X in mid-life (which is where we are now) takes up the role of a wise elder, a test of the lessons we learned in our rough youth. For that reason, we share a special kinship with Gen Beta, who, as fellow Nomads, are destined to similar life experiences based on the turnings.
So, if interpreted through Strauss and Howe’s lens of generational cycles and typologies, what can we imagine about the generation known as Beta, kids who will be born starting around 2025 and will it echo Generation X’s life experience?
Futurists think in terms of possibilities, not prophecies. And the idea that there is a rhythm to history is almost antithetical to the fundamental cornerstone of foresight, which is that the future cannot be predicted based on historical trends. Nevertheless, The Fourth Turning theory sparks a valuable conversation about the roles youth and new generations play in shaping the future.
Nomads
Nomads are iconic because they’re the rebels of the Fourth Turning. Beta will be underprotected but privileged Nomads, with a tendency to deviance and antisocial behaviors compared to other types. They play a decisive role in the cycle as middle-aged wise men and women. But their younger years are spent rejecting society. They play a vital role in questioning and tearing down the basic assumptions of the past. Nomads represent a source of creative destruction unraveling society. Harsh realities are the hallmark of the Nomad. They are children at a time in history when adults are so self-absorbed that kids are forced to depend on themselves from a young age. Though materially secure, vital needs go unmet by the lack of human connection during their alienated upbringing. They mature into a disconnected adulthood, where social cohesion is near its weakest point, according to the turnings.
Despite their incongruous childhood experiences, Beta, like all generations, will share an identity by virtue of the fact that they (paraphrasing Howe) “share a time and place in history.” The rise of the Millennial generation, according to Strauss and Howe, indicates the cycle has taken on a global identity and stride; soon, all societies may be experiencing orchestrated turnings.
The New Nomad Legacy
What lies ahead for Beta is that, like us Gen Xers, they age into oversight positions during a moment of crisis. Timing is destiny in the four turnings universe, so upon entering mid-life, they must execute the strategies and events that will bring forth the start of a new cycle. Though unpleasant, It’s actually one of the most important parts of the turnings. If the theory holds, the Betas stand to inherit the role today’s middle-aged Generation X cohort is currently playing out.
In terms of legacies, while Gen X has earned a reputation for being ignored, apathetic losers, our impact on society has been to quietly revoke outdated norms. For example, gay rights in the west have moved forward exponentially on Gen X’s watch. The decriminalization of medical and recreational marijuana is another common sense way Gen X has curtailed needless human suffering. Attitudes toward sustainability have grown mainstream as Gen X has grown older. We have been front and center of the information society, including social media, which, for good or bad, has been a source of profound innovation and economic value. Generation X has had long-lasting effects on society.
Given what we know now about some of the dominant demographic, technological, and geopolitical forces shaping the future, what will Beta bring to bear on the tumultuous cycles of destiny? According to archetype, similar to Generation X, Betas will be instinctively drawn to point out hypocrisy. Gen Beta might reject phenomena such as deep fakes, or other deceptive means of using AI. Could the Betas lead a backlash against untrustworthy content? Another theme of Gen Beta’s may represent basic survival, something that rings true with climate forecasts into the 2040s. Although the transition to clean and renewable energy is already underway, it will take decades to complete the transformation. Attending the death throes of the petroculture might become part of Beta’s legacy, which speaks to their Nomadic fate for being captains of crisis. The best advice for being born in 2025 is: Buckle up!
Selected references:
https://mccrindle.com.au/article/generation-beta-defined/
https://www.lifecourse.com/about/method/timelines/generations.html
Image credit:
https://unsplash.com/photos/2-children-playing-on-yellow-and-blue-trampoline-VeOYzzaHuso?utm_content=creditShareLink&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=unsplash
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