Invitation to Futurology: A Taxonomy from Scanning to Scenarios
As you can read in the interview, my explanation of scenarios starts by referring to signals. As usual, my interpretation is influenced by my anthropology studies, which is where I got the ideas for the Taxonomy of Foresight and the concept that a signal equates to "the smallest possible unit of foresight," which is an adaptation of one of my favorite linguistics concepts, a phoneme (the smallest possible unit of sound that carries meaning). If a signal is a phoneme, a scenario is an entire language system. Here is what I told Hilton about foresight now and into the future:
Signals are a huge part of the futurist vocabulary. It is an indicator that something is changing, often discovered through a form of foresight research called scanning. A signal can take the form of a trend, or a tension, or something new that enters the zeitgeist such as a technology. A futurist seeks out signals to track and monitor and then curates signals to build and implement scenarios.
By my logic, there is a taxonomy of foresight research that starts with weak signals (simple) and progresses to scenarios (complex). Only journalists, futurists, trendspotters, social scientists, and fringe subcultures pay attention to early weak signals. I consider signals to be the smallest possible unit of foresight: a subtle but unmistakable hint that something is starting or changing or transforming. It’s a blip on the radar. It says, “watch this space.” It carries meaning but we usually are not sure what or how much until we consider it in relation to other signals.
At the top of the taxonomy, a scenario represents the largest possible unit of foresight. Scenarios are the most elaborate expression of a vision or image of the future and rests on many signals. Signals help scenarios ”ring true” despite being very distinctly different from today. Scenarios achieve a level of immediacy and aspiration that a lone signal usually cannot reach. They orchestrate key signals into a coherent narrative hinged on uncertainty and complexity, and begging for decision.
When you are planning with scenarios, you are invoking the power of a story, or set of stories, to compel action. To quote my favorite futurist, Amy Webb, foresight engagements are opportunities to extend “an urgent invitation to grow” (54:44). The strategy and ideation that typically emerge from a foresight engagement are the manifestation of that growth. Signals play a part in the continuity and monitoring aspect of foresight. They work to inform scenario planning activities long after that scenario has been published and presented to stakeholders. Foresight does not end in a grandiose finale. Instead, we go back to the signals: tending, adapting, and becoming innately sensitive to meaningful fluctuations so plans can be adjusted strategically and proactively.
Stories make the inconceivable conceivable. In scenario planning they can bring a vision to life. A well-written scenario can highlight the weak assumptions that make us vulnerable to strategic blind spots. I propose that as uncertainty increases, scenarios will become more typical as a survival strategy.
In the future, a stronger form of foresight may be possible and essential, thanks to how much data there is to draw on and connections to be made. Scenarios are based on data, so it is feasible we will tap deeper into AI and digital twins and even the metaverse to test uncertainty based on vast data and diverse means of data interpretation. In the future we could partake in a form of foresight well beyond the traditional techniques embodied by scenarios, simulations, game theory, and sensemaking. I envision the futurist role evolving toward new levels of inter- and multidisciplinarianism, drawing on regeneration, quantum computing, indigenous knowledge, neurotech, generative AI, intuition, nonhuman intelligence, biotechnology, and much, much more that we can’t even imagine yet.
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