New Year’s Resolutions? Uncertainties at a Tipping Point in 2024
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Sometimes we are inspired and mindful about life goals, like at New Year's. Other times we wait for the red flags and warning signs that something should be done. Similarly, there are signals that certain societal and technological forces are ripe with the potential to gather intention this year, 2024, and beyond. Their ensuing resolution could bring about more hope for the future on a collective level.
Why focus on uncertainty instead of trends? To use the trending topic of 2023 as an example, artificial intelligence has opened a Pandora’s Box of gray areas: pause or no pause? Friend or foe? Transparent or deceptive? Accurate or hallucinating? These kinds of questions are perfect futurist fodder since they encapsulate an overflowing sense of uncertainty. It's important to point out that in 2023, AI wasn't a new trend. But it reached a boiling point as a persistent source of paradigm-altering possibilities making us feel constantly on the cusp of witnessing a new chapter of the future unfold.
This post calls out three areas of uncertain potential that may soon awaken dormant possibilities, ideally bringing positive change to society. Trend dynamics are dependent on unpredictable human systems, so their trajectory to resolution is always fluid. Still, these three issues have been around a while and stand to be resolved--one way or the other--in the coming months and years. Here are three well-supported trends at their tipping points, with considerable potential to shape the remaining years of the 2020s.
1. Geoengineering:
Why focus on uncertainty instead of trends? To use the trending topic of 2023 as an example, artificial intelligence has opened a Pandora’s Box of gray areas: pause or no pause? Friend or foe? Transparent or deceptive? Accurate or hallucinating? These kinds of questions are perfect futurist fodder since they encapsulate an overflowing sense of uncertainty. It's important to point out that in 2023, AI wasn't a new trend. But it reached a boiling point as a persistent source of paradigm-altering possibilities making us feel constantly on the cusp of witnessing a new chapter of the future unfold.
This post calls out three areas of uncertain potential that may soon awaken dormant possibilities, ideally bringing positive change to society. Trend dynamics are dependent on unpredictable human systems, so their trajectory to resolution is always fluid. Still, these three issues have been around a while and stand to be resolved--one way or the other--in the coming months and years. Here are three well-supported trends at their tipping points, with considerable potential to shape the remaining years of the 2020s.
1. Geoengineering:
Geoengineering is a movement for implementing innovative and often controversial solutions to counter the negative effects of climate change. For years, there have been mixed opinions in the scientific community as to whether geoengineering is beneficial or harmful. Climate interventions range from deflecting sunlight from Earth to various weather modifications. Another technique called "enhanced weathering" uses crushed rocks to soak up carbon dioxide with the added benefit of restoring soil quality on farmlands. Given the fact that geoengineering now has an AI and computing advantage, including high performance computing which can help us make sound decisions on the use of these techniques (like whether to block the sun), geoengineering may be positioned for a decisive impact on solving climate change soon.
2. Gen Beta:
2. Gen Beta:
Generations have predictable timing but unpredictable impacts. Born starting around 2025, the kids of Gen Z and younger Millennials, Gen Beta will introduce a new zeitgeist as generations always do. Their generation is poised to be AI natives, never having known a world without its advantages. Given the tensions building today, Gen Beta could become further defined as the AI arms race generation, echoing the Boomer experience of growing up during the Cold War and being shaped by historic geopolitical events that determine a new global hierarchy. On the other hand, Gen Beta could witness another AI winter if the variables (energy, chips, talent) fail to fall in place.
3. Utopian Smart Cities
There has been an explosion of exquisitely planned smart cities popping up around the globe the past few years. Saudi Arabia's Neom gets the most PR but there are several other projects in the works that promise a futuristic high-tech lifestyle, often in harmony with nature. A major uncertainty here is that of free will versus oppression. Digital identity may be the defining technology of a smart city, offering social innovations, a higher quality of life, and unlocking universal access to services. The advantages of digital identity adoption could create win-wins across future smart cities: policing, social programs, education, banking. At the same time, a high degree of surveillance poses numerous legal and justice issues that could result in a smart city that's more of a prison than a utopia.
The appeal of geoengineering, Gen Beta, and utopian smart cities is that they have the timing and impact to hang on the verge of being resolved in one way or another. The ambiguity of uncertainty can be a source of stress and fear. But in 2024 let it be an inspirational reminder that there are positive futures lying dormant in the present.
There has been an explosion of exquisitely planned smart cities popping up around the globe the past few years. Saudi Arabia's Neom gets the most PR but there are several other projects in the works that promise a futuristic high-tech lifestyle, often in harmony with nature. A major uncertainty here is that of free will versus oppression. Digital identity may be the defining technology of a smart city, offering social innovations, a higher quality of life, and unlocking universal access to services. The advantages of digital identity adoption could create win-wins across future smart cities: policing, social programs, education, banking. At the same time, a high degree of surveillance poses numerous legal and justice issues that could result in a smart city that's more of a prison than a utopia.
The appeal of geoengineering, Gen Beta, and utopian smart cities is that they have the timing and impact to hang on the verge of being resolved in one way or another. The ambiguity of uncertainty can be a source of stress and fear. But in 2024 let it be an inspirational reminder that there are positive futures lying dormant in the present.
Image credit: Photo by Michał Parzuchowski on Unsplash
